S&500 - Level's week 30 Jul, 2012

For this week, the most likely range of movement of the S&P500 index is 1400-1350.

Analogy with 2007 27 Jul, 2012

Next picture shows how the current market could be developing a similar pattern with market of 2007.

If this happens, we still would see more volatility during summer before the new Bullish Cycle.

Source: Marketantropology.com

Next picture shows the performance of the Dow Jones during the Olympics since 1900.

The average is a return of +4% with a 68% of probabilites.

Looking at the chart, we also see that during the years finished on 2, all of them were positive (during those twe weeks).

Therefore, the probabilities of finishing positive after the Olympics are too high..

Source: Bespoke

Spain has become the epicenter of what could be the next financial earthquake. And the return on market reflects this, along with Italy and Greece.

Source: Bespoke

Our expectation for this week is a Lateral-Bearish movement.

Levels of the week where S&P500 could move with more probabilities are 1362-1325

The following picture shows how the bullish sentiment is about the 20%, despite increases in the week.

We see these levels has coincided with significant bottom markets.